| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $825 | $824 | $1,155 | $1,743 |
| Operating Income ($M) | -$39 | $21 | $446 | $620 |
| Net Income ($M) | $603* | $20 | $403 | $787 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $171 | $174 | $599 | $768 |
| Operating Margin | -4.7% | 2.6% | 38.6% | 35.6% |
| Profit Margin | — | 2.4% | 34.9% | 45.2% |
| Op. Cash Flow ($M) | $42 | $227 | $486 | $581 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | -$110 | -$12 | $148 | $105 |
| Net Debt ($M) | $450 | $487 | $148 | $180 |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $0.08 | $1.59 | $3.30 |
*FY2022 net income includes one-time items. Operating income is the cleaner metric.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $36.97 | Above all MAs |
| 20D SMA | $35.11 | Support |
| 50D SMA | $36.95 | At SMA (consolidation) |
| 100D SMA | $33.55 | +10% above |
| 200D SMA | $27.04 | +37% above |
| Golden Cross | Apr 13 | 50D crossed above 200D |
| 1M Momentum | +13.5% | Strong |
| 1W Momentum | -4.2% | Minor pullback |
| 20D Realized Vol | 54.3% | Elevated |
| 60D Realized Vol | 61.2% | High (miner typical) |
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 52W High | $44.67 | Resistance / Target 2 |
| Fib 23.6% | $39.94 | First resistance |
| 50D SMA | $36.95 | Current area |
| Fib 38.2% | $37.01 | ← We are HERE |
| 20D SMA | $35.11 | Near-term support |
| Fib 50% | $34.65 | Key support |
| 100D SMA | $33.55 | Strong support |
| Fib 61.8% | $32.29 | Deep support |
| 200D SMA | $27.04 | Bull/bear line |
| 52W Low | $13.92 | Max drawdown level |
Probability: ~35%
Catalyst: Q1 2026 earnings beat (call scheduled), gold $3,500+
Probability: ~40%
Catalyst: Execution on guidance, continued FCF generation
Probability: ~20%
Catalyst: Fed hawkish pivot, USD surge, Peru politics
Probability: ~5%
Catalyst: Black swan — geopolitical + gold + Peru all negative
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Net Debit (per spread) | $1.82 |
| Max Risk (per contract) | $182 |
| Max Profit (per spread) | $6.18 ($618 per contract) |
| Risk/Reward Ratio | 1 : 3.4 |
| Breakeven at Expiry | $38.82 (+5.0% from current) |
| Suggested Size (100 spreads) | $18,200 max risk |
| Max Profit at $45+ (100 spreads) | $61,800 |
| Target Scenario | Bull ($48+) or Base ($40-44) |
Why this works: You're paying $1.82 to make up to $6.18 — a 3.4:1 payout. BVN only needs to reach $38.82 (+5%) to break even, and the analyst consensus target is $40-44. If the bull case plays out ($48+), you capture the full $8 spread. Max loss is capped at $18,200 on 100 spreads.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Net Debit (per spread) | $0.60 |
| Upside Exposure | Unlimited above $45 |
| Downside Obligation | Buy BVN at $30 if assigned (19% below current) |
| Breakeven | $45.60 for profit on call; $29.40 effective purchase on put |
| Suggested Size (50 contracts) | $3,000 debit; $150,000 margin for put assignment |
| Target Scenario | Bull case — BVN at $48-55 |
Why this works: For just $0.60/share, you get unlimited upside exposure above $45. The "risk" is being assigned BVN at $30 — which is a price you'd happily buy given $2+/share EPS even in a bearish scenario. Think of the short put as a limit buy order at $30 that pays you while you wait. Only for investors willing to hold BVN stock long-term if assigned.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock Cost Basis | $36.97 |
| Call Premium Collected | $5,880 (35 × 100 × $1.68) |
| Effective Cost Basis | $35.29 ($36.97 – $1.68) |
| Max Profit (if called at $42) | $23,485 (18.2% in 63 days) |
| Annualized Return if Called | ~105% |
| Downside Breakeven | $35.29 (4.5% buffer) |
| Plus Dividend (if ex-date in range) | ~$1.14/share annual → ~$0.28 quarterly |
Why this works: You buy BVN at $36.97 and immediately sell the $42 call for $1.68, lowering your cost basis to $35.29. If BVN hits $42 in 63 days, you make 18.2% ($23,485). If it stays flat, you pocket $5,880 in premium and can sell another round of calls. Downside: you own the stock outright below $35.29 — but at 9.5x forward P/E with 3%+ yield, that's a comfortable hold.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock Investment | $129,395 |
| Insurance Cost | $12,705 (9.8% of stock) |
| Effective Cost Basis | $40.60 ($36.97 + $3.63) |
| Max Downside | $33 floor → max loss -$26,600 (-18.8%) |
| Upside | Unlimited above $40.60 breakeven |
| Breakeven | $40.60 (+9.8% from current) |
Why this works: Full upside participation with a hard floor at $33. If Peru politics blow up or gold drops 15%, your max loss is capped at 18.8% instead of potentially 40%+. The breakeven at $40.60 aligns with the analyst consensus target — meaning the base case covers the insurance cost. Best for larger positions where the 10% insurance premium is worth the peace of mind.
| If You Believe... | Best Trade | Max Risk | Target Return | Key Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold continues higher, BVN hits $48+ | Trade 1 (Bull Call Spread) | $18,200 | +340% on capital | Capped at $45, but 3.4:1 risk/reward |
| Strong conviction, willing to own at $30 | Trade 2 (Risk Reversal) | $150K margin | Unlimited >$45 | Near-zero cost; must be ready for put assignment |
| Base case ($40-44), want income now | Trade 3 (Covered Call) | $129K stock | 18.2% in 63d | Caps upside at $42; own stock on downside |
| Bullish but worried about tail risk | Trade 4 (Protected Long) | $142K total | Unlimited >$40.60 | Floor at $33; pays for itself at analyst target |
| Combo: Bull + Hedge | Trade 1 + Trade 2 | $18K + margin | Best risk/reward | Bull spread for near-term, risk reversal for longer-term conviction |
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | $6.10 | $9.90 | $8.00 | 62.5% | -0.51 |
| $37 | $5.10 | $7.00 | $6.05 | 61.7% | -0.43 |
| $35 | $3.00 | $5.90 | $4.45 | 56.4% | -0.38 |
| $33 | $2.35 | $4.90 | $3.63 | 58.3% | -0.33 |
| $30 | $1.35 | $3.30 | $2.33 | 57.6% | -0.24 |
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 | $3.00 | $6.50 | $4.75 | 53.3% | 0.55 |
| $40 | $2.05 | $6.00 | $4.03 | 57.3% | 0.47 |
| $42 | $2.05 | $4.80 | $3.43 | 57.4% | 0.42 |
| $45 | $1.15 | $4.70 | $2.93 | 60.3% | 0.37 |
| $50 | $0.05 | $2.80 | $1.42 | 53.1% | 0.23 |
Note: BVN options have wide bid/ask spreads (~40-60% spread). Use limit orders at midpoint. Liquidity is best at $30, $35, $40, $45 round strikes. IV at 55-62% is elevated — consider selling premium strategies (Trades 2, 3) to capitalize on rich options pricing.