⛏️ GDX / GLD Daily Trading Monitor
Hougaard Situational Analysis + Technical Strategies
Date: April 16, 2026
Data: EODHD (EOD 2026-04-15)
Model: Hougaard + Technical + Relative Value
GDX $97.77 -2.96%
O: $99.92   H: $100.42   L: $97.68   V: 16,404,351
20-Day Price
20-Day Volume
1D-2.96%
5D-0.42%
20D+4.05%
60D+0.55%
YTD+88.35%
📊 Technical Indicators
53.9 RSI 80.3 Stoch %K 19.0 ADX 74.8 %B 4.2 ATR%
Moving Averages
EMA 9$97.05🟢
SMA 20$91.13🟢
SMA 50$98.33🔴
SMA 200$79.72🟢
STRONG BULL  GOLDEN CROSS
MACD
MACD Line0.764
Signal Line-0.709
Histogram1.473
NO CROSS
Bollinger Bands
Upper$104.52
Lower$77.75
%B0.748
Width29.38%
NORMAL
Volume
Today16,404,351
Avg 20d29,700,578
Ratio0.6x
OBV TrendRISING
NORMAL
🎯 Hougaard Situational Analysis
Gap Analysis
DOWN -0.82%
Significant: No | Filled: No
60d fill rate: 47%
Trend Day
NOT TREND DAY
Range: 87% of avg | Body: 78%
Close position: 3% of range
Exhaustion
↑0 / ↓1
No exhaustion signal
Day Structure
NORMAL
Prev H: $101.57 | Prev L: $99.42
Broke High: No | Broke Low: Yes
Compression
NONE
BB Width: 29.38%
Normal volatility
Failed Breakouts
1 detected
2026-04-14: FAILED BULL BREAKOUT @ $101.37
⚡ Active Signals
Failed Breakout @ $101.37
📐 Key Levels
Resistance
$117.18
$113.50
$112.54
Current
$97.77
VWAP20: $88.68
Support
$78.74
$92.00
$92.28
52W Range
$45.10 – $117.18
SMA50: $98.33 | SMA200: $79.72
💡 Trade & Positioning Ideas
HOUGAARD HOUGAARD FAILED BREAKOUT
SHORT MEDIUM
Entry: Short below $101.37 (failed resistance)
Target: $93.65 (-1 ATR)
Stop: $100.42
R:R: 1:1.5
Failed bullish breakout on 2026-04-14 at $101.37. Hougaard: 'Failed breakouts are the most reliable trade setup. The trapped longs become fuel.'
REL VALUE MINERS/GOLD RATIO MOMENTUM
LONG GDX MEDIUM
Entry: Long GDX at market
Target: $101.89
Stop: $95.71
R:R: 1:2
GDX/GLD ratio at 0.2220 above SMA20 (0.2136). Miners outperforming gold by +12.0% over 1M. Ratio at 85th percentile. Leverage play on gold momentum.
GLD $440.46 -1.04%
O: $442.88   H: $443.74   L: $439.60   V: 6,095,295
20-Day Price
20-Day Volume
1D-1.04%
5D+1.36%
20D-4.10%
60D+4.55%
YTD+43.25%
📊 Technical Indicators
51.5 RSI 89.5 Stoch %K 19.6 ADX 76.1 %B 2.4 ATR%
Moving Averages
EMA 9$436.19🟢
SMA 20$426.32🟢
SMA 50$450.24🔴
SMA 200$384.09🟢
BULL  GOLDEN CROSS
MACD
MACD Line-2.365
Signal Line-5.592
Histogram3.227
NO CROSS
Bollinger Bands
Upper$453.41
Lower$399.22
%B0.761
Width12.71%
NORMAL
Volume
Today6,095,295
Avg 20d14,323,940
Ratio0.4x
OBV TrendRISING
NORMAL
🎯 Hougaard Situational Analysis
Gap Analysis
DOWN -0.50%
Significant: Yes | Filled: No
60d fill rate: 35%
Trend Day
NOT TREND DAY
Range: 63% of avg | Body: 58%
Close position: 21% of range
Exhaustion
↑0 / ↓1
No exhaustion signal
Day Structure
INSIDE DAY
Prev H: $445.18 | Prev L: $439.02
Broke High: No | Broke Low: No
Compression
NR7 🔥
BB Width: 12.71%
⚡ Breakout expected
Failed Breakouts
1 detected
2026-04-09: FAILED BULL BREAKOUT @ $440.44
⚡ Active Signals
Gap DOWN -0.5%
Inside Day
NR7
Failed Breakout @ $440.44
📐 Key Levels
Resistance
$509.70
$492.15
$481.46
Current
$440.46
VWAP20: $422.06
Support
$399.20
$422.55
$431.63
52W Range
$291.78 – $509.70
SMA50: $450.24 | SMA200: $384.09
💡 Trade & Positioning Ideas
HOUGAARD HOUGAARD FAILED BREAKOUT
SHORT MEDIUM
Entry: Short below $440.44 (failed resistance)
Target: $429.98 (-1 ATR)
Stop: $443.74
R:R: 1:1.5
Failed bullish breakout on 2026-04-09 at $440.44. Hougaard: 'Failed breakouts are the most reliable trade setup. The trapped longs become fuel.'
HOUGAARD HOUGAARD INSIDE DAY + NR7 BREAKOUT
BOTH HIGH
Entry: Long above $445.18 / Short below $439.02
Target: ±$10.48 (1 ATR from entry)
Stop: Opposite side of range
R:R: Defined by breakout direction
Inside Day + NR7 compression pattern. Hougaard: 'Compression precedes expansion. The tighter the range, the more violent the breakout.' BB Width at 12.71%.
⚖️ GDX / GLD Relative Value Monitor
Current Ratio
0.2220
1M: +12.04%
SMA 20
0.2136
Above ↑
SMA 50
0.2181
MINERS LEADING
52W Range
0.1554 – 0.2395
Percentile: 85th
3M Change
-5.57%
20D Trend
Interpretation: Miners are outperforming gold (ratio above SMA20). This typically signals risk-on sentiment and leveraged bullish positioning on gold. GDX offers higher beta exposure. Ratio at the 85th percentile of its 52-week range.
📰 Market Context & News
2026-04-15
Silver sixth straight deficit — squeeze risk rising
Structural supply deficit supports precious metals complex
2026-04-13
Gold & silver lower on failed Iran peace talks
Geopolitical risk premium fluctuating, inflation worries resurface
2026-04-12
Central banks: 23-month gold buying streak, +25t YTD
Structural demand tailwind — Poland leads February additions
2026-04-10
Gold weekly gains; analysts see volatility but firm LT outlook
HSBC, BNP Paribas maintain constructive gold view
2026-04-10
BNP Paribas: Gold 'particularly attractive' amid headwinds
Wealth management urging diversification into gold
2026-04-14
Gold $4,000–$6,000 range discussion for 2026
Gold trading ~$4,700 range, analysts debating target levels
📚 Tom Hougaard Situational Analysis Framework
Gap Analysis
Gaps represent overnight sentiment shifts. Gap fades work when the fill rate exceeds 55%. "The market loves to fill gaps — it's unfinished business."
Trend Day Identification
Range > 120% of average + body > 60% of range + close near extreme = trend day. Next day follows through 60-65% of the time. "Don't fight a trend day."
Failed Breakout
"The most reliable setup in trading." When price breaks a level but fails to hold, trapped traders become fuel for the reversal. Trade in the direction of the failure.
Counter-Trend Exhaustion
4+ consecutive closes in one direction with RSI at extremes (>70 or <30). "Extended moves carry the seeds of their own reversal." High-probability mean reversion.
Inside Day / NR7
Compression precedes expansion. Inside days and Narrow Range 7 (NR7) patterns signal imminent breakouts. "The tighter the coil, the more violent the spring."
Volume-Price Divergence
When price and volume disagree, trust volume. Rising OBV with falling price = accumulation. Falling OBV with rising price = distribution. "Volume is the lie detector of the market."
Previous Day High/Low
Yesterday's high and low are the most important reference levels. Breaks above/below with volume confirm direction. "The market has a memory — yesterday's extremes matter."
Best Loser Wins (Psychology)
The core Hougaard principle: "Your job is not to be right. Your job is to make money." Accept losses quickly, size positions for survival, let winners run. Every trade idea includes a defined stop.
DISCLAIMER: This monitor is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All trade ideas are generated algorithmically based on Tom Hougaard's published situational analysis methodology combined with standard technical indicators. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Generated by Kamba Financial Analysis Platform • Data source: EODHD API • 2026-04-16 13:15 UTC