Catalyst Monitor

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Gold (XAU/USD)
EODHD Forex Spot
Silver (XAG/USD)
EODHD Forex Spot
GDX
Gold Miners ETF
GDXJ
Jr. Miners ETF
Oil (USO)
Hormuz risk
Prob-Wtd Gold EV
$4,963
5-scenario calc (static)
All
Prices
Macro
Miners
Positioning
Technical
Trade KPOs
Catalysts
Kill Switches
Category Variable Value Change Signal Priority Date Source
● Precious Metals  — EODHD EOD data, click Refresh to update
PriceGold (XAU/USD)BULLISHCOREEODHD XAUUSD ↗
PriceSilver (XAG/USD)BULLISHCOREEODHD XAGUSD ↗
PriceGold/Silver RatioMEDMacroTrends ↗
PriceGDX (Gold Miners)★ STRONGESTCOREEODHD GDX ↗
PriceGDXJ (Jr. Miners)WATCHHIGHEODHD GDXJ ↗
PriceGLD (SPDR Gold ETF)REFEODHD GLD ↗
PriceSLV (iShares Silver ETF)REFEODHD SLV ↗
● Macro Variables  — ETFs via EODHD, rates/indices static (linked)
MacroOil (USO)BEARISH PMCRITICALEODHD USO ↗
MacroWTI CrudeBEARISHHIGHInvesting.com ↗
MacroDXY proxy (UUP)HEADWINDHIGHEODHD UUP ↗
MacroDXY Index~99.4 (Mar 24)+3.5% from pre-warBEARISH PMHIGHMar 24Investing.com ↗
MacroUS 10Y Yield4.39% (Mar 24)↑ +29 bpsBEARISH PMHIGHMar 24CNBC ↗
MacroUS 2Y Yield3.90% (Mar 24)MEDMar 24CNBC ↗
Macro2Y/10Y Spread+49 bps (Mar 24)Bear steepenerMIXEDMEDMar 24FRED ↗
MacroReal Yield (10Y TIPS)~2.01% (Mar 24)↑ +21 bpsBEARISH PMCRITICALMar 24FRED ↗
Macro5Y Breakeven2.53–2.63% (Mar 23)REFMar 23FRED ↗
Macro10Y Breakeven2.37–2.40% (Mar 19)REFMar 19FRED ↗
MacroFed Funds Rate3.50–3.75%HOLDHIGHMar 18CME FedWatch ↗
MacroRate Cut Prob (before Sep)0% (Mar 24)from 2-3 cuts pre-warBEARISH PMCRITICALMar 24CME FedWatch ↗
MacroVIXRISK-OFFMEDEODHD VIX ↗
MacroUS HY Spread (ICE BofA)320 bps (Mar 18)↑ from ~260WIDENINGHIGHMar 18FRED ↗
● Miner Fundamentals  — prices via EODHD, AISC/guidance static
MinerNewmont (NEM)BUYHIGHEODHD NEM ↗
MinerNEM AISC (2026 Guidance)$1,680/ozMEDFeb 19Newmont IR ↗
MinerNEM Margin @ Current Gold(Gold − $1,680)STRONGHIGHcalcGold price − AISC guidance
MinerNEM Hedge StatusUNHEDGED ✓Since Jul 2007FULL UPSIDEHIGHNewmont IR ↗
MinerAgnico Eagle (AEM)BUYHIGHEODHD AEM ↗
MinerAEM AISC (2026 Guidance)$1,400–1,550/ozMEDFeb 12AEM IR ↗
MinerAEM Margin @ Current Gold(Gold − $1,475)STRONGHIGHcalcGold price − AISC midpoint
MinerAEM Hedge StatusUNHEDGED ✓No-hedge policyFULL UPSIDEHIGHAEM IR ↗
MinerWheaton PM (WPM)BUYMEDEODHD WPM ↗
● Positioning & Sentiment  — weekly/monthly data (linked to sources)
PositioningCFTC Gold Net Long (MM)~102,236 contracts~$45.2B notionalMID-RANGEMEDMar 11CFTC ↗
PositioningCFTC Silver Net Long (MM)~8,500 contractsNear multi-yr lowsCONTRARIAN BULLHIGHMar 11CFTC ↗
PositioningGLD ETF Flow (1-wk)-$2.26BoutflowCONTRARIANMED~Mar 20ETFdb ↗
PositioningCB Gold Buying (2025)863 tonnes+83% vs 10yr avgSTRUCTURAL BULLHIGHFY2025World Gold Council ↗
PositioningPBoC Buying Streak16 monthsconsecutiveBULLISHMEDFeb 2026WGC ↗
PositioningSilver Supply Deficit (2026F)-67M oz6th consecutive yrSTRUCTURALHIGH2026FSilver Institute ↗
PositioningGDX IV (30-day)5584th %ile (52-wk)IV ELEVATEDHIGHMar 23Barchart ↗
PositioningGDX Put/Call (OI)1.27Elevated put demandHEDGINGMEDMar 2026Barchart ↗
● Technical Indicators  — click links for real-time charts
TechnicalGold RSI (14-day)44.8NeutralNEUTRALMEDMar 24TradingView ↗
TechnicalSilver RSI (14-day)46.5NeutralNEUTRALMEDMar 16TradingView ↗
TechnicalGDX RSI (14-day)9EXTREME OVERSOLDGENERATIONALCRITICALMar 20TradingView ↗
TechnicalGDXJ RSI (14-day)16DEEPLY OVERSOLDOVERSOLDHIGHMar 18TradingView ↗
● Trade KPOs  — distances calculated from EODHD prices
TradeGold — Stop $4,050COREEntry $4,350–$4,450
Gold — T1 (EV) $4,963$4,963R:R 2.13:1COREProb-weighted EV
Gold — T2 $5,200$5,200MEDS3 base case
Gold — T3 $6,300$6,300STRETCHS5 bull case
TradeGDX — Stop $70COREEntry $78–$82
GDX — T1 (EV) $98.38$98.38R:R 3.00:1COREProb-weighted EV
GDX — T2 / ATH $115–117$117.18MEDS3 bull case
TradeSilver — Stop $58COREEntry $67–$71
Silver — T1 (EV) $83.38$83.38R:R 2.36:1COREProb-weighted EV
Silver — T2 $100$100.00MEDS3 bull case
TradeGDXJ — Stop $105 ⚠CRITICALEntry $118–$124
GDXJ — T1 (EV) $144.13$144.13R:R 3.38:1HIGHProb-weighted EV
GDXJ — T2 $175$175.00MEDS3 bull case
● Upcoming Catalysts  — days auto-calculated
CatalystCOT ReportMar 28HIGHHIGHMar 28CFTC ↗
CatalystMarch NFPApr 4MEDMEDApr 4BLS ↗
CatalystMarch CPI ⚡ CRITICALApr 10S4 TRIGGERCRITICALApr 10BLS CPI ↗
CatalystNEM Q1 Earnings ⚡Apr 22MARGIN TESTCRITICALApr 22Newmont IR ↗
CatalystAEM Q1 EarningsApr 30HIGHHIGHApr 30AEM IR ↗
CatalystFOMC Meeting ⚡May 6-7RATE PATHCRITICALMay 6-7Fed Calendar ↗
CatalystWPM Q1 Earnings~May 7MEDMED~May 7WPM IR ↗
CatalystFOMC + Dot Plot ⚡Jun 17-18PIVOTALCRITICALJun 17-18Fed Calendar ↗
Catalyst★ Hormuz CeasefirePENDINGTBD — #1 catalystASYMMETRICCRITICALOngoingGoogle News ↗
● Kill Switches  — mandatory exit triggers
KillKS1 — Gold < $3,950 (2 days)$3,950EXIT ALLCRITICALTradingView ↗
KillKS2 — Real Yield > 2.50%2.50%current ~2.01%-50% ALLCRITICALFRED TIPS ↗
KillKS3 — DXY > 103 (5 days)103.0current ~99.4EXIT GDXJ+XAGCRITICALInvesting.com ↗
KillKS4 — Fed hike prob > 25%25%current 0%EXIT OPTIONSHIGHCME FedWatch ↗
KillKS5 — NEM + AEM both miss Q1EPS missApr 22-30-50% GDX/GDXJHIGHQ1 earningsNEM ↗ / AEM ↗
KillKS6 — 2Y/10Y re-inverts >20bps<29 bpscurrent +49 bps-30% ALLMEDFRED ↗
KillKS7 — GDX IV < 20 + no rally<20%current 55%EXIT OPTIONSMEDBarchart ↗
KillKS8 — COT > 80th %ile in 1 wk>80th %ilecurrent ~50th-25% ALLMEDCFTC ↗