Corporate Strategy & Credit Quality Report

Credit Agricole S.A.

World's largest cooperative banking group — Universal bank, insurer & asset manager
March 9, 2026 ACA.PA • Euronext Paris G-SIB (1.5% buffer) Cooperative / Mutualist
Credit Ratings
S&PA+Stable
Moody'sA1Stable
FitchA+Stable
DBRSAA(low)Stable
ScopeAA−Stable
Group Net Income
€8.8bn
+1.3% YoY
Group Revenue
€39.6bn
+3.9% YoY
Group CET1
17.4%
+770bp vs SREP
CASA ROTE
13.5%
−0.5pp vs FY24
Cost / Income (CASA)
55.7%
+0.9pp vs FY24
Cost of Risk (Group)
28bp
+3bp vs FY24
NPL Ratio (Group)
2.2%
Stable
Total AUM
€3.1tn
+6.4% YoY
Contents
1 Medium-Term Plan 2 Financial Results 3 Business Segments 4 Strategic Priorities 5 Challenges & Risks 6 Credit Quality 7 Capital & Liquidity 8 Peer Comparison 9 Cooperative Structure
1Medium-Term Strategic Plan

“Ambitions 2025” — Completed Ahead of Schedule

Launched June 2022; every single target was exceeded by year-end 2024, one full year early.

TargetMTP GoalAchieved (FY24)
Net Income Group Share>€6bn€7.1bnExceeded
ROTE>12%14.0%Exceeded
CET1 (CASA)~11%11.8%Exceeded
CET1 (Group)≥17%17.6%Exceeded
Cost / Income<60%54.8%Exceeded
Dividend Payout50% cash50%+ (€1.10)Met
Customer Growth+1m retailAchievedMet

“ACT 2028” — Current Plan (Nov 2025 – 2028)

Acceleration • Cohesion • Transformation

MetricACT 2028 Target
Revenue CAGR (2024–2028)>3.5% p.a.
Net Income Group Share>€8.5bn
Cost / Income<55%
ROTE>14%
CET1 (CASA / Group)~11% / ≥17%
TLAC (excl. sr. pref.)~27% of RWA
Customers60 million by end-2028
Revenue outside France~60%
M&A capacity~€6–7bn (~150bp capital)
2FY 2025 Financial Results

Reported February 4, 2026. Impacted by €607m Banco BPM first consolidation charge (Q4) and €147m French corporate tax surcharge.

Credit Agricole S.A. (CASA)

MetricFY 2025FY 2024Δ
Revenues€28,079m€27,151m+3.3%
Net Income€7,074m€7,087m−0.2%
Cost / Income55.7%54.8%+0.9pp
ROTE13.5%14.0%−0.5pp
CET111.8%11.7%+0.1pp
Cost of Risk35bp27bp+8bp
DPS€1.13€1.10+2.7%

Groupe Crédit Agricole (GCA)

MetricFY 2025FY 2024Δ
Revenues€39,558m—+3.9%
Net Income€8,754m€8,639m+1.3%
Cost / Income59.6%59.7%−0.1pp
CET117.4%17.6%−0.2pp
Cost of Risk28bp~25bp+3bp

Asset Quality

MetricGroupCASA
NPL Ratio2.2%2.3%
Coverage Ratio83%73%
Loan Loss Reserves€21.9bn€9.5bn
3Business Segment Performance

A. Asset Gathering Strongest — ~40% of NI

Sub-segmentAUM (Dec 25)YoY ΔNet Income Δ
Amundi (Asset Mgmt)€2,380bn+6.2%+26.0%
Life Insurance€373bn+7.4%+5.7%
Indosuez (Wealth Mgmt)€298bn+6.8%+19.7%
Division Total€3,051bn+6.4%+12.4%

Insurance: 17.9m P&C contracts (+7%); Solvency II ~195%. Amundi Victory Capital stake: 26.7%. Degroof Petercam added €69bn AUM to Indosuez.

B. Large Customers / CIB Record Year

C. French Retail NII Pressure

EntityPerformance
Regional Banks (39)NII stable; housing loans +28% Q2/Q2; deposit mix shift pressuring margins
LCLNII +7.8% excl. base effects (Q2 2025); housing loans +24%
BforBankTargeting profitability by 2028; AI-powered cost reduction

NII declined −5.8% Q1/Q1 as ECB rate cuts fed through; offset by +7.4% fee income growth.

D. International Retail Expanding

EntityKey Metrics
CA ItaliaNPL 2.8%, coverage 80.4%, CoR 38bp (Q3 2025)
CA DeutschlandTargeting 2m clients by 2028 (doubling current base)
CA Egypt / Poland / UkraineNet surplus of inflows over loans +€3.9bn

E. Specialised Financial Services Rising CoR

Consumer finance outstandings €122.5bn (+2.6%); car loans 53% of book. Cost of risk up +24.7% in Q3 2025 — key area of credit concern.

4Strategic Priorities Under ACT 2028

Digital & AI Transformation

Sustainability / ESG

M&A & Geographic Expansion

DealStatusStrategic Impact
Banco BPM19.8% stake; ECB approval for >20%CA Italia merger explored → 3rd-largest Italian bank (€163bn loans, ~€2.3bn NI)
Degroof PetercamCompleted (Jun 2024)+€69bn AUM into Indosuez
Victory Capital26.7% via Amundi (Q2 2025)€201m contribution (+63.2%)
Amundi USDeconsolidated (2025)€452m capital gain

Geographic targets: Italy deepening, Germany doubling to 2m clients, ~60% CASA revenue from outside France by 2028.

5Challenges & Risks
⚠
French Sovereign Risk (Critical for Ratings)
Ratings are capped at the sovereign level. A further France downgrade to ‘A’ would directly trigger a CA downgrade. Moody's changed France outlook to negative (Oct 2025). France debt €3.2tn, deficit 6.1%.
Fitch: “An upgrade is unlikely because CA’s IDR and VR are constrained by France’s rating.”
⚠
Italian Exposure & Banco BPM
Italy ~9% of credit exposure (S&P economic risk ‘5’ vs France ‘3’). BPM consolidation: −€607m charge (Q4 2025). Golden Power restrictions & political complexity. Fitch flags “material expansion into higher-risk environments such as Italy” as negative sensitivity.
📈
NII Under Pressure
ECB rate cuts feeding through; NII −5.8% Q1/Q1. Deposit mix shift from demand to time deposits. Fee income (+7.4%) partially compensating. Home loans (45% of book) reprice slowly.
📜
Regulatory Pressures
Basel IV output floor could increase RWAs by ~25% (among largest European impacts). G-SIB buffer up from 1.0% to 1.5% (Jan 2026). French corporate tax surcharge €147m (2025).

Asset Quality Trends

6Credit Quality Assessment

Full Ratings Matrix by Instrument

InstrumentS&PMoody'sFitchDBRSScope
LT Issuer / IDRA+—A+AA(low)AA−
Senior PreferredAA− (RCR)Aa3AA−AA(low)AA−
Senior Non-PreferredA−A3A+—A+
Tier 2 (Subordinated)BBB+Baa1A−——
AT1 / HybridBBB−Baa3BBB—BB+
Short-TermA-1P-1F1R-1(mid)S-1+
OutlookStableStableStableStableStable

Moody's mechanics: Standalone BCA baa2 → +2 notches (cooperative uplift) → Adjusted BCA a3 → +2 notches (LGF) → Deposits / Senior Aa3

Recent Rating Actions

DateAgencyActionRationale
Dec 2024Moody'sDowngrade (Aa3→A1)France sovereign downgrade to Aa3
Oct 2025S&PFrance ↓ A+French fiscal outlook; debt/deficit trajectory
Dec 2025S&PAffirmed A+ / StableDiversification offsets lower anchor
Dec 2025FitchAffirmed A+ / StableOE score capped a+; IDR unchanged
Jul 2025DBRSConfirmed AA(low)Strong franchise, diversified model
Dec 2025ScopeAffirmed AA−Consolidated Group fundamentals

Credit Strengths vs. Weaknesses

✓ Key Credit Strengths

  • Cooperative Mutual Support: Art. 511-31 legally binding; 1988 joint & several guarantee; 2-notch Moody's uplift
  • Diversified Model: Retail, CIB, insurance, AM, SFS — “resilient and very stable profitability” (Fitch)
  • Exceptional Capital: Group CET1 17.4% — highest among European G-SIBs; +770bp buffer
  • Sound Asset Quality: NPL 2.2% (below EU avg); coverage 83% (better than peers)
  • Strong Funding: Deposits 60–65% of funding; L/D ~103%; LCR 140%; €485bn reserves
  • Consistent Profits: Revenue growth every year 2015–2024; ROTE >12% consistently; DPS tripled

⚠ Key Credit Weaknesses

  • French Sovereign Cap: Further downgrade to ‘A’ would directly trigger CA downgrade; Moody's France outlook negative
  • Italian Exposure: ~9% of credit; Banco BPM deepens risk; Fitch negative sensitivity
  • Structural Complexity: Three-tier cooperative creates governance/transparency challenges
  • Basel IV: Output floor could increase RWAs by ~25%
  • CIB Lumpiness: Large corporate exposure; cyclical sectors (shipping, aerospace, O&G)
  • Moderate RoRWA: ~2% op. profit/RWA — “lower range vs peers” (Fitch)
  • IR Sensitivity: 200bp shift → EVE impact €11.2bn (~10% CET1)
7Capital, MREL/TLAC & Liquidity

Capital Position (Dec 2025)

MetricCASAGroup
CET1 Ratio11.8%17.4%
Buffer vs SREP+300bp+770bp
P2R1.65%1.80%
Dist. to MMD / M-MDA354bp (€14bn)590bp (€38bn)
G-SIB Buffer (Jan 26)—1.5%

MREL / TLAC

MetricActualReq.
TLAC (excl. sr. pref.)27.6%~22.4%
MREL Total32.1%21.8%+CBR
Sub. MREL27.6%17.2%+CBR
✓
Group waived use of senior preferred for TLAC — subordination fully met via AT1 + T2 + SNP alone.

Debt Stack (early 2025)

InstrumentOutstandingΔ
Senior Preferred€162bn+€3bn
Senior Secured€89bn+€5bn
Senior Non-Preferred€40bn+€3bn
Tier 2€24bn−€1bn
AT1Active mgmt€1.5bn Feb 25

2025 programme: €20bn MLT, balanced senior/subordinated.

Liquidity

MetricGroupMin
LCR (12M avg)~140%>100%
NSFR~120–135%>100%
LCR Surplus€92bn—
Liquidity Reserves€485bn—
HQLA€155bn—
Loans / Deposits~103%—

Dividend Policy

YearDPSPayout
FY 2024€1.10~50%
FY 2025€1.13~50%
ACT 202850% cash; interim div from 2026

Yield ~6.1–6.3%. DPS tripled 2015–2024. Buybacks limited to employee plan offsets.

8Peer Comparison
AgencyCredit AgricoleBNP ParibasSociété GénéraleBPCE
S&PA+ / StableA+ / StableA / StableA+ / Stable
Moody's (Dep.)Aa3 / StableAa3 / StableA1 / StableA1 / Stable
Fitch IDRA+ / StableA+ / StableA− / StableA / Stable
Fitch Sr. Pref.AA−AA−AA+
DBRSAA(low)AA(low)——

Key Differentiators

🏆
Credit Agricole is rated at the top tier among French banks, tied with BNP Paribas. Group CET1 of 17.4% is the highest among European G-SIBs.
9Cooperative Structure & Credit Impact
~2,500 Local Banks (Caisses Locales)
Owned by 12.1 million mutual shareholders • “One person, one vote”
↓
39 Regional Banks (Caisses Régionales)
Autonomous cooperatives • Core French retail & commercial banking
↓ majority ownership via SAS Rue La Boétie
Credit Agricole S.A. (CASA) — Listed Entity
CIB • Insurance • Amundi • International Retail • LCL • SFS

Key Mechanisms

Net Credit Impact

DimensionAssessmentImpact
Rating Uplift+2 notches Moody's (BCA baa2 → Adj. BCA a3); all agencies rate on Group fundamentalsPositive
Capital StabilityCooperative retains ~75% of net earnings; CET1 structurally strongPositive
FundingDeep domestic deposit franchise (60–65%); more stable than wholesale-dependent peersPositive
GovernanceThree-tier complexity; agencies assess as manageable but flag as a factorNeutral/Mild Neg.
🔗Sources

Credit Agricole Official: ACT 2028 Plan • FY 2025 Results • FY 2024 Results • Debt & Ratings • Credit Update Nov 2025

Rating Agencies: S&P A+ Stable • Fitch A+ Stable • Moody’s Opinion • DBRS AA(low) • Scope AA− • S&P French Banks Dec 25

News & Analysis: Banco BPM (Bloomberg) • ESG Strategy • Moody’s Dec 2024 • FY25 Earnings Call

Credit Agricole SA — Corporate Strategy & Credit Quality Report • March 9, 2026
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